Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of buying stocks or currencies, you take a position on whether or not something will happen.
Every market on Catalyst asks a question with a defined outcome. You decide whether that outcome will happen and trade accordingly.
How contracts work
Each market has two sides. Depending on the market type, the labels differ — but the mechanics are identical:
Market type | Labels | Example |
Event questions | YES / NO | Will Ethereum break $5,000 by December 31? |
Price direction | UP / DOWN | Bitcoin Up or Down — May 1, 9:15–9:30AM ET |
YES and UP pay out if the stated outcome occurs. NO and DOWN pay out if it does not. All contracts work the same way regardless of how they are labeled.
How prices work
Every contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99. The price reflects the market's probability estimate for that outcome.
A YES contract at $0.70 means the market believes there is roughly a 70% chance the event happens
The NO contract on the same market would be priced around $0.30
YES and NO always sum to approximately $1.00
How contracts settle
The winning side settles at $1.00 per contract
The losing side settles at $0.00 per contract
Example: You buy YES on "Will the Fed cut rates in June?" at $0.62.
If the Fed cuts: contract settles at $1.00. Profit = $0.38 per contract.
If the Fed does not cut: contract settles at $0.00. Loss = $0.62 per contract.
How is this different from gambling?
Prediction markets are skill-based. Prices are set by other traders, not by a house. You are trading against other market participants, and your advantage comes from reading probability more accurately than the market.