Every contract on Catalyst is priced between $0.01 and $0.99 while the market is open. The price reflects the market's collective estimate of the probability that the outcome will happen. When the event resolves, that changes — contracts do not settle at their trading price. They settle at either $1.00 or $0.00 based on the actual outcome.
Contract price | What the market believes |
$0.10 | ~10% chance the event happens |
$0.50 | ~50% chance — roughly a coin flip |
$0.80 | ~80% chance the event happens |
How contracts settle
When the event resolves, every open contract moves to its final value — regardless of what price you paid or what the market was trading at when it closed.
If the event happens: YES settles at $1.00, NO settles at $0.00
If the event does not happen: NO settles at $1.00, YES settles at $0.00
Your profit or loss is the difference between what you paid per contract and the settlement value.
Why price matters
The question is not just whether an event will happen. The question is whether the current price accurately reflects the true probability.
If you believe a 55¢ YES contract has an 80% chance of happening, you have an edge. If you believe a 90¢ YES contract has only a 70% chance of happening, the market is overpriced.
Prices change in real time based on supply and demand - new orders, new information, and other traders all move prices continuously.